This Thing’s a Wrap

This Thing's a WrapThis Thing's a Wrap

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="When news broke on Thursday that both Bam Adebayo (neck strain) and Goran Dragic (foot) were doubtful for Game 2, oddsmakers moved the Lakers spread from -8 to -9.5 and the money line shifted from -360 to -495. Miami had a chance of upsetting Los Angeles on their improbable Finals run, but they needed a lot of things to go their way in addition to staying healthy, and apparently, neither of those things are going to happen.» data-reactid=»19″>When news broke on Thursday that both Bam Adebayo (neck strain) and Goran Dragic (foot) were doubtful for Game 2, oddsmakers moved the Lakers spread from -8 to -9.5 and the money line shifted from -360 to -495. Miami had a chance of upsetting Los Angeles on their improbable Finals run, but they needed a lot of things to go their way in addition to staying healthy, and apparently, neither of those things are going to happen.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Dragic may be able to power through the plantar fasciitis issue, but there’s no way an injury like that won’t significantly affect his play. As an example, Joe Johnson played through a torn plantar fascia from Game 2 onward of Brooklyn’s 2013 first-round series with the Bulls, but he went on to shoot 41.7% from the field and 25.6% from 3-point territory. Now, it is possible that the Heat will be able to replace Dragic’s production with a better effort from Tyler Herro (14 points on 6-of-18 shooting in Game 1) and a locked-in Kendrick Nunn (he put in 18 points off the bench on Wednesday), but without Bam, their chances are nil – as they simply won’t have anyone on their roster capable of dealing with Anthony Davis.» data-reactid=»20″>Dragic may be able to power through the plantar fasciitis issue, but there’s no way an injury like that won’t significantly affect his play. As an example, Joe Johnson played through a torn plantar fascia from Game 2 onward of Brooklyn’s 2013 first-round series with the Bulls, but he went on to shoot 41.7% from the field and 25.6% from 3-point territory. Now, it is possible that the Heat will be able to replace Dragic’s production with a better effort from Tyler Herro (14 points on 6-of-18 shooting in Game 1) and a locked-in Kendrick Nunn (he put in 18 points off the bench on Wednesday), but without Bam, their chances are nil – as they simply won’t have anyone on their roster capable of dealing with Anthony Davis.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="An MRI revealed a neck strain for Adebayo, and unless things significantly improve for him over the next 24 hours, it seems likely that he’ll be missing Game 2. Kelly Olynyk, Derrick Jones Jr. and maybe even Meyers Leonard will attempt to fill his minutes, but there’s simply no replacing what Bam does for this Miami team. If he’s out, you can almost guarantee another big game from AD.» data-reactid=»21″>An MRI revealed a neck strain for Adebayo, and unless things significantly improve for him over the next 24 hours, it seems likely that he’ll be missing Game 2. Kelly Olynyk, Derrick Jones Jr. and maybe even Meyers Leonard will attempt to fill his minutes, but there’s simply no replacing what Bam does for this Miami team. If he’s out, you can almost guarantee another big game from AD.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="It’s also worth noting that while Jimmy Butler (ankle, knee) said he would play and wasn’t even listed on the injury report, he too, is likely far less than 100% healthy. While Jimmy Buckets got off to a great start in Game 1 (16 points on 10 shots at the half), he wasn’t the same player after tweaking his ankle/knee, finishing the second half with just seven points on 1-of-3 shooting (5-of-5 from the line). Butler is as tough as they come, but I’d be surprised to see him match his uber-efficient Game 1 production of 23 points on 8-of-13 shooting if he’s playing on a gimpy ankle in Game 2.» data-reactid=»26″>It’s also worth noting that while Jimmy Butler (ankle, knee) said he would play and wasn’t even listed on the injury report, he too, is likely far less than 100% healthy. While Jimmy Buckets got off to a great start in Game 1 (16 points on 10 shots at the half), he wasn’t the same player after tweaking his ankle/knee, finishing the second half with just seven points on 1-of-3 shooting (5-of-5 from the line). Butler is as tough as they come, but I’d be surprised to see him match his uber-efficient Game 1 production of 23 points on 8-of-13 shooting if he’s playing on a gimpy ankle in Game 2.

Unfortunately, it’s all kind of coming off the rails for Miami at the worst possible time, and I just can’t see them overcoming all the things the basketball gods have smitten them with.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Editor’s Note: Whether you want to win a 50/50 or take down a GPP, use our DFS Optimizer, customizable projections and more to create the smartest lineups. Subscribe to all four major sports for as low as $7.99/month!&nbsp; » data-reactid=»28″>Editor’s Note: Whether you want to win a 50/50 or take down a GPP, use our DFS Optimizer, customizable projections and more to create the smartest lineups. Subscribe to all four major sports for as low as $7.99/month! 

As I’m writing this, the over/under for Friday’s Game 2 is at 216.5, and I’d say that’s a pretty easy situation to hammer away at the under. The total score in Game 1 was 214, but the Lakers got soft with their defense during the fourth quarter, and I’m not sure Miami will even be able to crack 100 points given what they’re dealing with. I also wouldn’t expect the Lakers to shoot 64.7% from 3-point territory again, and both teams play at a slower pace, so a lot of things are pointing in the direction of under.

The -9.5 spread for Los Angeles is a little high, but the Lakers are 7-2-1 against the spread over their past 10 games, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see another blowout. Personally, I put a parlay bet on L.A. against the spread and on the under, but I teased down the spread to -7.5, and I’m quite confident that I’ll be a richer man after Game 2.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="This series is over, it’s simply a matter of how many games it takes LeBron James to collect his fourth Larry O’Brien trophy.» data-reactid=»31″>This series is over, it’s simply a matter of how many games it takes LeBron James to collect his fourth Larry O’Brien trophy.