Premier League returns after international break

Welcome back to our weekly English Premier League betting preview after a weekend off for World Cup qualifying. Keep those qualifiers in mind as you make your bets this weekend as key players for various teams may not start after they played for their international teams.

Our picks from two weeks ago weren’t great, but they weren’t terrible either. If you wagered $10 on each of the 10 game results we would have lost you 41 cents. We’ll try to do better this week. All games are on Saturday unless noted and all odds are via BetMGM

Crystal Palace vs. Tottenham

Palace (+340)

Tottenham (-110)

Tie (+230)

Tottenham has been on a roll to start the season and have some pretty high odds to get the win relative to other favorites across the board. I think the win is the smart play here, though I’d seriously consider a small hedge on the tie.

Arsenal vs. Norwich City

Arsenal (-200)

Norwich City (+525)

Tie (+350)

Is it crazy to bet Norwich to win? Someone is guaranteed to get at least a point in this game after both teams started the season with zero points in their first three games. Arsenal is lacking coherency and direction while Norwich did a good job strengthening its squad ahead of its Premier League return. Let’s get crazy. Norwich for the win.

Brentford vs. Brighton and Hove Albion

Brentford (+180)

Brighton (+165)

Tie (+220)

None of the three outcomes would surprise me here. I think Brighton is a better side than they were in 2020, but Brentford shouldn’t be a pushover at home. Let’s go with the tie.

Leicester City vs. Manchester City

Leicester City (+450)

Manchester City (-175)

Tie (+325)

Manchester City may be rotating its squad a bit after the international break, but I’m still going to go with the favorites here.

Manchester United vs. Newcastle

Manchester United (-500)

Newcastle (+1300)

Tie (+600)

Man U has the biggest odds of the weekend to win. Will we see Cristiano Ronaldo on the pitch? Take United, despite the odds.

Southampton vs. West Ham

Southampton (+195)

West Ham (+135)

Tie (+250)

West Ham is second in the league after three games and is tied with Manchester City with 10 goals. I think the tie is the smart play here, though I wouldn’t be stunned by a West Ham win.

Watford vs. Wolves

Watford (+230)

Wolves (+130)

Tie (+225)

Watford is ahead of Wolves in the table after Wolves has failed to score a point through three games. Unlike Arsenal, Wolves has been competitive to start the season. That’s why they’re favored and they should get their first points of the season. We’re rolling with a tie.

Chelsea vs. Aston Villa

Chelsea (-350)

Aston Villa (+900)

Tie (+450)

Aston Villa is the second biggest underdog of the weekend despite sitting 11th in the table with a team that looks better than last season’s version. Chelsea wins, but it may not be too comfortable.

Leeds vs. Liverpool (Sunday)

Leeds (+340)

Liverpool (-135)

Tie (+300)

This game has the highest over/under all weekend (3.5) and the over is just +120. I’m trying to talk myself into a Leeds win, but I’m not sure Kalvin Phillips starts after starting at Poland for England on Wednesday. I guess I’ll go with the tie.

Everton vs. Burnley (Monday)

Everton (-135)

Burnley (+375)

Tie (+270)

I can convince myself of either team winning here. A 1-1 tie feels right, though I’m going to go with under 2.5 goals (-115) as the official pick.