Betting guide to the 2021-22 EPL season

The English Premier League season is here. 

The 2021-22 EPL season kicks off on Friday when promoted Brentford takes on Arsenal. Manchester City is the defending league champions and is looking for a Champions League title to go along with all of its domestic success while Harry Kane may or may not be a member of Tottenham Hotspur at the end of the month. 

Here’s what you need to know if you’re looking to place any season-long bets on the EPL. There’s some money to be made with some smart decisions. All odds are via BetMGM. 

League winner

Manchester City, -150

Chelsea, +500

Liverpool, +500

Manchester United, +750

As you can see, oddsmakers are bullish on Manchester City’s chances of a repeat title. And why shouldn’t they be? Man City has the deepest team in the league and just added Aston Villa playmaker Jack Grealish to bolster their wealth of attacking options. Will Man City add Harry Kane too? It doesn’t seem out of the equation.

If we were betting someone outside of Man City, we’d go with either Chelsea or Manchester United. Chelsea is incredibly deep too and if the form the Blues showed under Thomas Tuchel at the end of the 2021 season isn’t a fluke, they could be legitimate challengers. Manchester United needs to get better at breaking down weaker teams. More points from teams that don’t let United counter-attack will go a long way to a title challenge.

Chelsea is the most popular bet at BetMGM with 29% of wagers on the Blues to win the league. Man United is second at just under 22% while Liverpool is third at 12%. Just 7% of tickets are on City to win the league, likely because of the low odds. 

The most popular longshot bet is Arsenal to win the league at +5000. Ten percent of bets are on the Gunners to win the league. 

To finish top four

Manchester City, -2000

Chelsea, -450

Liverpool, -450

Manchester United, -350

Tottenham, +450

Leicester City, +450

Arsenal, +450

Will any of the underdogs usurp one of the favorites in the top four? We’re not so sure. Leicester City was fantastic before seeing things come undone in the final weeks of the season in May. Can the Foxes do it again? The loss of Wesley Fofana until 2022 is a big one.

We don’t advise betting Tottenham until there’s a resolution to the Kane saga. That’s the biggest story in the Premier League ahead of the season.

To finish top 10 (outside of the big four)

Tottenham, -700

Leicester City, -700

Arsenal, -500

Everton, -175

West Ham, -145

Leeds, -135

You cannot bet Man City, Man United, Chelsea or Liverpool to finish in the top 10 because their odds would be so low. 

West Ham feels like the best value here. The Hammers were sixth a year ago ahead of every team listed here besides Leicester. West Ham hasn’t suffered significant squad losses in the offseason either and while sixth was a significant overachievement, it should still finish in the top 10.

Everton is also a good value. The soccer may look a lot different under Rafa Benitez than it did under Carlo Ancelotti, but it should be boringly effective.

To get relegated (three go down)

Norwich City, -110

Watford, +100

Brentford, +110

Crystal Palace, +175

Burnley, +225

Newcastle, +275

Southampton, +400

The top three teams listed here are the three that are making the jump from the Championship this season. Norwich City and Watford won the two automatic promotion places while Brentford advanced via the playoffs.

Two of the three teams that were relegated in 2021 were newly-promoted teams while one team — Norwich — was relegated after a season in the Premier League in 2020. It’s a very good bet that at least one of those three teams will be heading back to the Championship after a single season in the EPL.

If we’re betting a team outside of the newly promoted teams to go down, Crystal Palace is tempting at +175. There’s been a ton of turnover at Palace among the squad and management. Southampton is also not a bad flier bet either after the sale of Danny Ings to Aston Villa.

Top goal scorer

Tottenham F Harry Kane, +300

Liverpool F Mo Salah, +300

Chelsea F Timo Werner, +1600

Liverpool F Diogo Jota, +1800

Manchester City F Raheem Sterling, +1800

Liverpool F Sadio Mane, +1800

Manchester United MF Bruno Fernandes, +2000

Manchester City F Gabriel Jesus, +2000

Arsenal F Pierre-Emrick Aubameyang, +2000

Kane is the favorite for golden boot now. If he goes to Manchester City his odds would have to get worse, right? There’s far more attacking talent at City and he’d be at a team that won’t be wholly reliant on him in the final third. We’re not sure what bet we like here the most. There are decent cases to be made against any of the favorites listed. Gabriel Jesus could be an intriguing bet if Kane stays at Tottenham or goes somewhere other than Manchester City.

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